Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Information Statement

From Environment Canada:

WOCN31 CWHX 110545
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 2:47 AM ADT Wednesday 11 September 2013
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Quebec maritime
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Gabrielle.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Tropical storm Gabrielle near Bermuda - direct or
Remnant effects expected during the period Friday to Saturday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: 32.0 north 65.0 west about 50 kilometres southwest of
Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 93 km/h.

Present movement: north at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm Gabrielle redeveloped early Tuesday after spending
4-and-a-half days drifting northward as a weak tropical low. The
storm is expected to remain in a moderate 'wind shear' environment
which in the short term may limit or even supress any
intensification. Sometimes 'sheared' storms can dissipate quickly or
even intensify rapidly - there is low scientific skill in predicting
intensity change in systems like this. Most computer models keep it
going as a 45-50 knots tropical storm for the next two days and then
push it or its remnants toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on
Friday. Models are unanimous in their prediction of a cold front
moving into the maritime provinces Friday morning. The merging of
fronts with tropical moisture or tropical storms, in general,
Is often results in a heavy rainfall event.

Given the current expectation of a track just east of Cape Breton,
heavy rain could be an issue over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island
and Îles-de-la-Madeleine. Newfoundland is currently expected to be
On the 'warmer' and 'windier' side of the track, but this predicted
picture could easily shift, so please stay tuned to forecast updates
to establish a sense of how the forecast is changing.

New Brunswick will likely receive heavy rainfall today and Thursday
but it is not associated with moisture from Gabrielle.

A. Wind.

Much too early to quote wind speeds. By Thursday morning we will have
an idea of what to expect in terms of wind. At this point it appears
that Newfoundland would have a higher chance of windy conditions.

B. Rainfall.

Much too early to quote rainfall amounts. By Thursday morning we will
have an idea of what to expect in terms of amounts. Fronts merging
with tropical moisture/storms can certainly lead to flooding
rainfalls. This must be kept in mind especially for areas west of the
track (which at this time includes Nova Scotia, pei,
Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Western Newfoundland).

C. Surge/waves.

Too early to estimate magnitude. We will have an idea of wave heights
late Wednesday or Thursday morning.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

If the storm persists and develops further, highest waves and winds
would be over southeastern maritime and most Newfoundland waters.
Too early to predict details though.

Visit weather.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest
hurricane track information map.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.


Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End



Follow us on Twitter : https://twitter.com/AL_in_NS

No comments: